Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

Our collective sense of optimisim largely drives consumer spending, which largely drives our economy.  When we have fatih that things are looking up, we spend and invest.  Consumers are credited with influencing the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 70%, although even that calculation is a generalized cause/effect.

January, 2017 reported good news on the job front; the 'official' employment rate is 4.8%.  But add in people discouraged by rejections, and part-timers who want to work full-time, and the rate is estimated at 9.2%.  Big difference.

Mid-level trade skills, like welders, are in demand as the recession recedes.  As are high-tech and entry level jobs, such as warehouse workers.  One bright spot is that employers are 'getting creative' about enticing retirees, stay-at-home-moms and those with disabilities.

Overall, pay increases are lethargic.  Rank-and-file workers averaged less than 2% increases in the last year, and the financial industry is reporting some pay drops.  When I started my compensation career almost 40 years ago, a 10% pool was set aside for merit and promotional pay increases at a mega insurance company.

I listen to stories, and many of us boomers are living in what I've come to call 'diminished circumstances.' Young people are carrying college debt and are unlikely to start over as welders.  While some are riding high in the money and tech industries, I can understand why so many people are not spending and investing.  Their reality is the nearly 10% 'hidden unemployment' statistic - more truth than lie.    

Source:  NYT article by Patricia Cohen, 2/4/17:  "Jobs Surge in January, But Pay Gains Remain Weak"

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/03/business/economy/unemployment-jobs-report-hiring.html?_r=0